China and the Global Recession – Part 1 – The Domestic Situation

The consensus of mainstream China analysts is that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is a unified entity that is destined to guide China into a new golden where it will enjoy global superpower status. This sanguine narrative maybe challenged as the current global economic recession has served to elucidate the genuine fragility of China’s political economy. Stability in the immediate future, let alone, decades from the present is not a fact to be taken for granted, but a likely possibility to be continuously observed and evaluated.

The Chinese leadership is less of a cohesive organism than a mixture of overlapping and competing regional, ideological, and institutional interests. This leaves China vulnerable to conflict. The glue that binds the various CCP factions and the monied elites is a vast patronage system made possible by 20 years of unprecedented economic growth, no Maoism or a constitutional “balance of powers”. The Chinese elite are conscious of this. Even President Hu Jintao recognized the importance of various factions to maintaining national stability by designating two possible successors from divergent ideological perspectives, Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang. The CCP has also been touting the phrase “zhengdi tuandui” (team of rivals) in the media, in reference to political cooperation, which seem to be part of President Hu’s larger goal of creating a “Harmonious Society”. China’s ability to realize this harmony is heavily dependent on the financial liquidity that feeds its “Leviathan”.

Most sources will site China as the third largest economy in the world, just behind Japan; however, according to the World Bank and IMF (2007 figures), China has the world’s second largest economy, if Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is adjusted by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). The PRC (People’s Republic of China) has $1.9 trillion USD in foreign exchange reserves, which provides it with a measure of security against the current global recession.

Unlike the world’s two largest economies, America and Japan, China will likely avoid a domestic recession, but it has not escaped unscathed. From October to December last year, a collapse in exports only exacerbated the slowdown in China’s growth already occurring since January 2008. The latter was actually purposely created by the implementation of domestic banking policies intended to fight inflation. By the 4th quarter of 2008 growth had slowed to a meager 6.8 percent, and the Chinese stock market had also lost 65 percent of its value (roughly $3 trillion USD).

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, recently made the optimistic prediction, that despite the economic downturn, China will see an 8 percent economic growth rate in 2009. Even an 8 percent growth rate would still fall under the decade average of 11 percent. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), being less assured, projected China’s 2009 growth at just 6.7 percent. It should be remembered that Chinese figures should always be viewed with healthy skepticism due to weaknesses in data collection and ambitious local officials seeking to aggrandize themselves before their superiors. Counterintuitively, some analyst actually believes, overall, China routinely understates growth to avoid the appearance of an economic bubble.

It is likely that the source of Wen’s confidence is the Chinese government’s proposed stimulus plan and the current state of the banking system. Chinese banks have limited international exposure; being less integrated, they were not as affected by the financial crisis. The PRC’s $584 billion USD (~4 trillion Yuan) stimulus package is roughly 6% of its total GDP. The package will focus on training migrant workers, R&D and improving infrastructure. There is also a special emphasis placed on improving domestic companies’ international competitiveness by streamlining the approval process for these companies to make foreign acquisitions, especially in automotives; textiles; energy; electronics and machinery sectors.

China’s banks are funding this corporate expansion by lending at a higher rate than at any time within the last year. It is expected that Chinese corporate investment of $16.3 billion last year could double this year. Globally the value of mergers and acquisitions has dropped by over 35%. Chinese companies have particularly focused on buying up billions of dollars in strategic natural resource assets in Iran, Brazil, Venezuela, and France. The Chinese government has used loans in Russia, Brazil, and Venezuela to ensure state owned energy companies secure deals. For example, China will supply up to $25 billion in loans to Russia in exchange for long term deals for the China National Petroleum Corporation. This will likely spur further concerns over future availability and price of these resources in nations that are in competition for them.

This is a sea-change in activity considering the attitude of the CCP in 2007. In that year, the CCP established credit quotas that domestic banks were subject to and they were continually adjusted upwards by the People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, as inflation became a significant concern. Exports grew only 9.4 percent for 2008 a downward trend from the decade’s average of 20 per cent. Export growth in January 2009 was -17.5 percent, industrial production also dropped. After the conditions of the last two years, the state-owned banks (SOBs) are quite willing to follow the stimulus mandate to increase lending and they also cannot now be held responsible for future nonperforming loans. Much of the stimulus money will be cycled through the banks and loaned to State-owned Enterprises (SOEs) and local governments. The CCP Standing Committee, partially in response to current and anticipated public pressure, have already made vague comments about the need for more transparency in how the stimulus package is spent, to head off corruption that could lead to public outrage.

China’s financial liquidity is largely a result of its people’s exceptionally high savings rate; China’s households save nearly 25% of their disposable, although they get low or even negative rates of return from the banks and financial markets. The recent decrease in exports has inversely effected employment, making the situation of the most vulnerable citizens precarious. The Asian Development Bank has found that China has one of Asia’s highest income inequality rates. In 2004, the combined income of the richest 20 percent being 11.4 times the aggregate income of the poorest 20 percent. These numbers have gotten progressively worse every year since. China has been trying to grow its domestic market, but consumption was low before the global recession and savings high due to the lack of social safety nets. There are three year plan to provide universal health care and education. Currently, Chinese consumer spending accounts for only 35 percent of China’s GDP, whereas in America it is two-thirds.

By February of 2009, there were 20 million unemployed migrant workers, which was double the estimate of December 2008; and an additional 6 to 7 million low skilled rural residents are expected to join the migrant workforce, as many multinationals are cutting back or shutting down factories. For the employed, raises in salary have fallen for the first time in 4 years. The only upshot is that wage deflation somewhat halts China’s recent loss in price competitiveness regional revivals, such as Vietnam, Philippines, and Cambodia.

There has been much talk in the Western media over the last year concerning Chinese government crackdowns on ethnic minorities in the provinces of Xinjiang and Tibet, but this behavior is not isolated to minorities on the periphery of China Proper; to the contrary, the majority of these actions seems to be in response to the uptick in “mass incidents” in Han majority areas.

The Chinese government has hired more than 40,000 state employees to police the 250 million Chinese that are on the internet in an effort known as the “Golden Shield Project”. Thousands of websites have been banned or censored and even text messages have been filtered. Many analysts supposed the increase in arrest and crackdowns were temporary, due to sensitivity around the Olympics Games, but this has proven incorrect. The crackdowns are directed at any criticism of the government that could cause poplar discontent, such as the “Tainted Milk Scandal” and last springs’ Sichuan Earthquakes, as well as any talk of democracy, Taiwan, Tibet, and other such contentious issues. It maybe that this is a two pronged approach, as Premier Wen, in early March, made his first internet address to the online Chinese community to encourage controlled discussion as an alternative to citizens possibly taking to the streets of China’s major cities.

The Chinese government has not published official figures on “mass incidents”, a CCP term for riots; demonstrations; and protests since 2004. In that year 74,000 incidents were recorded, a 28% change over the previous year. Foreign analysts, drawing on Chinese sources, estimated the 2005 figure to have been 80,000-85,000. Considering the trend line, starting from 1993, there is no reason to think the number of incidents has not increased at the historic average of 20% a year. The weak performance of the PAP in the pre-Olympic riots in Tibet, which resulted in the PAP forces reportedly losing control of the situation and forcing the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to become involved, surely caused alarm inside the CCP and the military. In January 2009, President Hu gave an ominous warning that the People’s Armed Police (PAP), that they will face difficult challenges ahead.

There has also been an increase in the number of “black houses,” unofficial jails for citizens that exercise their right to petition the national government in Beijing, a last desperate attempt to addresses grievances with provincial officials peacefully. The Chinese government denies the existence of these jails, but citizens are being abducted off the street, usually at the behest of local party cadre, in or in route to Beijing, to prevent them from filing embarrassing appeals. The state media has reported that 10 million such petitions have been filed in the last five years on complaints as diverse as unjust taxation, illegal land seizures and unpaid wages.

The fundamentals of the Chinese economy may be strong, but they are not “harmonious”. The history of China is instructive; in that, most revolutions in China have come from rural areas in bad economic times when the central government is seen as impotent, having lost the “Mandate of Heaven”. This “right of rebellion” against an unjust or ineffective rule has been a part of Chinese political philosophy since the Zhou Dynasty (1045 BC to 256 BC). The CCP is acutely aware of this history; its own origins lie in a rural populist movement led by a charismatic leader against a corrupt and incompetent regime. The CCP has also been a diligent study of how perestroika and glasnost led to the fall of the Soviet Communist Party.

The current global economic crisis has revealed significant cracks in China’s political and economic system. Harmony will be heavily dependent on the length of the global downturn and how adaptive and not reactive the CCP is to changing circumstances. It will also be contingent upon if the CCP earnestly intends to make substantive movements toward greater freedom of speech, tort reform, restraining graft and banking reform. If recent overture from the party elites are just a guise designed to ride out any potential threats to party power by strengthening security forces and drawing out potential enemies, this could be catastrophic, especially if the party’s patronage system’s life-blood does indeed dry up, corruption could increase in tandem with poverty. These twin forces would disproportionately strike rural areas, where most Chinese still live. In this situation the CCP’s “Great Wall” against the people will be the security forces. Due to the fractious nature of Chinese politics, it is quite possible that some members of the elite, especially of the tuanpai (populist faction) or even the military, could exploit this situation to their own political advantage. They could use populist appeals targeted to the urban poor and rural peasants to weaken their rivals. Hopefully the global economic downturn will be short lived or those who keep predicting China’s inevitable success will have to hedge their bets on the CCP reforming itself in a crisis. Historically, power does not willingly concede when under threat.

By Collin Spears, Chief Foreign Policy Correspondent,
Washington D.C. Bureau

How to Lead Your Team Through a Crisis

The ability to lead becomes incredibly apparent during times of crisis. The 2009 global financial system meltdown is a good case in point. Watching good and bad leaders during times of crisis provides us with lessons on how to act when faced with our own moments of crisis.

As a leader, there are critical attributes that you need to master in order to successfully navigate you’re your team and organization through the turbulence of a crisis into the tranquility of a stable environment.

These attributes are:-

i. Ability to stay calm

Who wants to have a leader who panics in times of crisis? To be an effective leader, you need to learn how to detach yourself from the emotions of the daily ups and downs of life. This is a fundamental characteristic of a strong leader in times of crisis. Consider relinquishing your leadership mantle to someone else if you get struck by bouts of panic during times of crisis

ii. Ability to identify and fix the pressing problem

It is not wise reacting to symptoms of a problem without getting to the problem itself. As a leader, you need to accurately diagnose the root of the problem and fix it. Time is very critical during a crisis. Sometimes there may be need to deal with the symptom because of the present impact. However, you must never cool off and stop at this. You need to dig deep into the root problem and solve it.

It is important to deal as much as possible with facts rather than opinions. When you are trying to project what may happen in the future, consider seeking the opinions of many especially those who have a good track record of understanding how the forces at play are likely to interact.

iii. Ability to consult and seek advice

Conventional wisdom demands that you seek advice especially when a crisis checks in. During this time, unintentional results of your actions can have a more immediate impact. You should draw a line between seeking advice and seeking a consensus. It is advisable that you decide solely rather than jointly. Before making a decision, you need to have the facts about the crisis and the potential aftermath of actions or inactions observed from as many viewpoints as possible.

iv. Ability to think strategically

In time of crisis, thinking about big issues while letting smaller ones look after themselves is absolutely critical. You need to get the right big picture rather than getting the big picture absolutely right. This is the time to make a decision about the right things, of course without forgetting the importance of the executing detail.

v. Ability to be authentic

You can not afford to posture when you are in a crisis. It is time to say what you mean and mean exactly what you say, period. Never let your team take a second guessing what your intentions might be. Clearly say if you are taking a calculated risk or are not sure about the answer. Use clear and simple language as obtuse language has a tendency of leaving people confused besides opening your message to various interpretations.

Be conscious about your body language as well since a feeble look will cast doubt on your level of conviction and ability to see a crisis through.

vi. Ability to communicate

Talk it all to your team. Inform your team about what you know, what you do not know and what you are doing about what you must know. Tell your team about your decisions and why you make them. Reiterate your message as saying it once may at times not be enough. Use all effective mediums as well as different communication styles to ensure that as many people as possible get the correct message.

Current Issues With COSO’s Draft Framework Update

Failures Within the COSO Framework Community

In 1992, COSO released its original Internal Control – Integrated Framework. This framework was in response to the requirements of the 1977 U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. The framework’s stakeholders have raised the following issues in their comments to the draft COSO 2012 update:

1. The majority of the firms at the center of the global financial crisis were following the SEC regulations which included having an effective internal control over financial reporting (ICFR). The firms’ SEC filings all claimed to have effective ICFR under COSO. Their assessment approaches were failures.

2. COSO has not defined and declared the problems with the existing COSO Framework materials. It has embarked on creating to an updated solution to an undisclosed set of issues.

3. The COSO 2012 update of the framework was developed primarily from one frame of reference.

4. The development approach to this revision did not follow a “Good Judgment Workflow” process. The timing of the process does not provide for adequate review, discussion and consensus development among diverse stakeholders with differing frames of reference.

COSO created a summary definition for an internal control framework containing three control objective categories: operations, financial reporting and compliance. It has also divided the principles concerning controls into five summary components:

1. Risk Assessment

2. Control Environment – Tone at the Top

3. Control Activities

4. Information and Communication

5. Monitoring

COSO followed up on its original framework documentation with additional documentation on the principles and their attributes. In 2004, COSO produced guidance on how to design and implement an enterprise-wide risk management framework. In 2006, COSO issued its guidance for smaller public companies on the principles and attributes of an ICFR Framework. This document was used extensively by the SEC and the PCAOB in their guidance and audit regulations in 2007. A based set of principles-based documentation has been created for the evaluation and assessment of ICFR. COSO must be congratulated for avoiding use of a rules-based approach.

Various commenters are calling on COSO to accomplish the following:

1. Public companies that fall under the regulation of the SEC need to have creditable guidance on how to apply the principles to address the business opportunities and risks with an effective and unique set of internal controls. The guidance needs to provide a comprehensive methodology for the assessment of ICFR.

2. COSO must state clearly the problems with the current Framework materials and their usage in creating controls. There are extensive issues with the creation, maintenance and assessment of COSO frameworks by management. There have been significant corporate governance failings concerning the review of management’s assessments. It does not appear that the external auditors are yet clearly instructed by the regulators on how to play their assurance role. The SECs has a focus on ICFR.

3. COSO needs to directly address the quality control enhancements for Corporate Governance and Risk Assessment. Better Corporate Governance and Risk Assessment are essential to prevent and lessen executive management excesses. The initial SOX regulations and reactions to those SOX regulations did not address the Corporate Governance and Risk Management issues that Congress was trying to address with Sarbanes-Oxley. Auditing Standard 2 and the preponderance of management’s internal control frameworks ran to the detail processing of transactions ignoring entity -level risk assessments. This left open the door for the Corporate Governance and Risk Management failures: i.e. AIG, Fannie/Freddie, Lehman Brothers, Country Wide, Merrill Lynch, MF Global, Lehman Brothers, etc.

4. COSO must implement a “Good Judgment Workflow” process for the approval of the revisions to its materials. COSO needs to recognize that the developers are dominated by a single frame of reference: Big Auditing Firm Experience. Those of us who have been external auditors, internal auditors, CFO’s, CEO’s, consultants to SEC registered firms and educators on frameworks understand how limiting this frame of reference has been to presenting a workable comprehensive framework.

5. COSO needs to establish a strategic plan and a tactical plan for its activities concerning “Quality Controls” over Corporate Governance and the issuing of audited financial statements. The 1977 Foreign Corrupt Practices Act was the first federal mandate for internal control framework usage. COSO’s current Framework was created for addressing this requirement. Most stakeholders did not take this requirement seriously until the Sarbanes-Oxley Act was passed. In this 25 year period little work was accomplished to enhance the art of ICFR by COSO.

Confidence in COSO 2.0

Stakeholders are confident that COSO can move forward to produce a better set of guidance concerning the establishment, maintenance and assessment of internal control frameworks. Historically, COSO has created a number of guidance documents that have contributed to the improvement of internal control frameworks. Numerous professionals have reached a base level of competence in the components of an framework by using the COSO materials as part of their guidance. Auditing firms have greatly expanded their auditing of ICFR and the documentation of this testing in their workpapers. Audit quality controls systems are improving on most firms. The current members of COSO are motivated to the enhancement of the guidance being provided.

COSO needs to:

1. Establish a strategic and technical plan for the updating of the original COSO Framework which is a quality control methodology covering corporate governance, financial reporting and compliance.

2. Within the short-term tactical period:

a. Enhance the current development team with additional frames of reference.

b. Define a clear “good judgment workflow’ for comments, discussion and approval that creates a new base document.

c. Issue a clear problem statement that supports the enhancement efforts.

3. Recognize that if the private stakeholders do not create a comprehensive set of guidelines we will continue to have Congress and Regulators setting the guidelines.

4. Add to the membership and governance of COSO stakeholders that bring frames of reference including risk management, corporate governance, legal, information technology, quality control methodologies, operations, regulators, etc.

COSO will find that if all the stakeholders take part in the process, we can advance the state of the art in frameworks. If we can do this, we will create value for the society as a whole.

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